India’s Q3 GDP Growth Surpasses Expectations: FY24, FY25 Outlook Analyzed

India’s economy continued its impressive run in the third quarter of FY24 (October-December 2023), exceeding expectations with a growth rate of 8.4%. This robust performance, following quarters of over 8% growth, has prompted revisions in GDP estimates and fueled optimism for FY25.

Key facts and figures:

  • Q3 GDP growth: 8.4%, exceeding projections and surpassing the previous quarter’s 8%.
  • FY24 GDP growth estimate: revised upwards to 7.6% from 7.3%.
  • Key drivers: strong private-sector investment, pick-up in services spending.
  • Economists’ projections: FY24 growth near 8%, FY25 growth between 6.2% and 7%.

Factors contributing to Q3 growth:

  • Robust private investment: This indicates businesses’ confidence in the economy and their willingness to expand, fueling job creation and economic activity.
  • Pick-up in services spending: The services sector, which accounts for a significant portion of India’s GDP, witnessed a rise in spending, indicating improving consumer sentiment and business activity.

Implications of strong Q3 growth:

  • Upward revisions for FY24: The impressive Q3 performance has led to revisions in estimates for FY24 GDP growth, with various institutions like UBS and Kotak Institutional Equities now projecting growth closer to 8%.
  • Optimism for FY25: Economists have also revised their FY25 growth projections upwards, with estimates ranging from 6.2% to 7%. This indicates increased confidence in the economy’s sustained momentum.
  • RBI’s policy stance: Markets will be closely watching the Reserve Bank of India’s (RBI) future actions on policy rates in light of the strong growth and decelerating inflation trend.

Challenges and considerations:

  • Gap between GDP and GVA growth: The significant gap between GDP and GVA growth in Q3 reflects higher government indirect taxes, possibly accompanied by lower subsidies. This necessitates continued efforts towards fiscal consolidation.
  • Slower production-side GVA growth: While the overall GDP growth is impressive, the production-side GVA growth slowed down in Q3 compared to the previous quarter. This calls for measures to boost manufacturing and industrial activity.
  • Consumption growth revival: Consumption growth is expected to recover gradually in FY25, but remains a key area to watch. Reviving consumer demand, particularly in rural areas, will be crucial for sustained economic growth.

Looking ahead:

India’s economic growth trajectory appears positive, with strong growth momentum and controlled inflation. However, addressing the gap between GDP and GVA, reviving production-side growth, and stimulating consumption remain crucial areas for policymakers to focus on in FY25 and beyond.

Additional points to consider:

  • The impact of global economic headwinds, such as the ongoing geopolitical tensions and potential slowdown in major economies, on India’s growth trajectory.
  • The effectiveness of government policies and reforms in promoting sustainable and inclusive growth.
  • The role of technological advancements and innovation in driving future economic growth.

By staying informed about these developments and taking proactive measures to address potential challenges, India can ensure its economic growth remains robust and inclusive in the years to come

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